NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread: Baker Mayfield vs. Sam Darnold Showdown
In the high-stakes world of NFL betting, Week 5 brings some intriguing matchups, none more personal than the duel between quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold—two players who once shared the huddle in Carolina. As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off against the Atlanta Falcons, all eyes will be on this former teammate rivalry. We're leaning toward Mayfield to come out on top against the spread, thanks to his recent hot streak and the Bucs' improving offensive rhythm.
Looking back at last week's slate, it was a tough go—blame the rash of injuries, those frustrating blocked kicks, questionable coaching calls, a porous offensive line softened by lighter training camps, and a penalty flag that seemed to fly at the worst moments. The kicking game? Let's just say it left a lot to be desired. But that's the nature of the NFL: unpredictable and unforgiving. Shaking off the rust, here's our take on Week 5's key games and where to place your bets.
The Mayfield-Darnold Clash: A Tale of Two QBs
Baker Mayfield has found his groove in Tampa, slinging the ball with confidence and leading the Buccaneers to back-to-back wins. Facing an Atlanta defense that's been leaky lately, Mayfield's mobility and deep-ball accuracy could exploit mismatches. On the flip side, Sam Darnold has shown flashes for the Falcons but struggles with consistency under pressure. In this head-to-head of ex-Panthers signal-callers, we're buying Mayfield to keep the momentum rolling. Pick: Buccaneers -3.5.
Chiefs and Eagles: Teams on the Rise
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to be a juggernaut, with Patrick Mahomes orchestrating another offensive clinic. Against a middling opponent, expect the Chiefs to cover comfortably— their defense has stepped up, and the run game is clicking. Over in Philadelphia, the Eagles' revamped line is paving the way for explosive plays. Jalen Hurts is thriving, and we're confident they'll handle business at home. Picks: Chiefs -6 | Eagles -4.
Fading the Cowboys: A Cautionary Bet
Dallas has the talent, but the Cowboys' inconsistencies— from turnovers to slow starts—have plagued them early this season. Facing a motivated rival, we see vulnerabilities in their secondary that could lead to a letdown. It's not time to write them off entirely, but against the spread, we're passing. Pick: Pass on Cowboys +2.5.
Week 5 shapes up as a chance for redemption after a bumpy Week 4. With injuries mounting across the league, smart betting means focusing on teams with momentum and favorable matchups. As always, these picks are informed by trends, stats, and a bit of gut feel— but remember, the NFL keeps us all guessing. For the full breakdown and live odds, check out the original analysis from The Athletic. What's your boldest prediction this week?